2022 Prediction for the year of Tiger - Mid Year review

 Introduction

The 2022 Prediction for the year of Tiger can be found here. The document was published in November 2021 and after 6 months into 2022 (according to Chinese Meta-Physics, the year starts in Feb 2022), below are the review of the prediction.

Prediction done in November 2021 for 2022

2022 Prediction:

Like last year, the conflicts and issues with trade war will continue this year. This year theme is transportation. The fast moving transportation (e.g. courier and delivery business) will continue to flourish this year.  With the high vaccination rate among most of the countries around the world, there is uplift in travel and leisure. However, due to rigid requirement, the public may be put off with travel.

Current Status:

As predicted, the trade war continue and the situation become worst with Russia invasion of Ukraine, which causes major shortage of food around the world. In addition, with the embargo being imposed on Russia, a lot of countries are suffering. There is a major crisis happening at Sri Lanka where the inflation is at 50%.

Transportation continue to thrive around the world. In US, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) shows an upward trend. 

 

Source: https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/april-2022-freight-transportation-services-index-tsi-first-decline-after-7-consecutive

In Singapore, the GDP from Transport in Singapore increased to 7200.60 SGD Million in the first quarter of 2022 from 6987 SGD Million in the fourth quarter of 2021

source: https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/gdp-from-transport

As predicted, there is an upward trend in travel and leisure but IATA predicted that airline industry will only return to profit next year. Airlines have to deal with high fuel prices which push airlines to hike fares.  According to IATA, international travel in Asia in 2021 was only at 7 per cent of what it was in 2019, compared to 25 per cent worldwide. In the first quarter of this year, it has picked up to 60 per cent in places like Europe and North America, but only 17 per cent in Asia. This is because of the slower opening of Asia, New Zealand and Australia this year and China’s strict zero-COVID restrictions. 

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/airline-industry-sees-return-to-profit-in-2023-defying-slowdown

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/sia-singapore-airlines-budget-business-leisure-travel-recovery-2732141

2022 Prediction:

The Covid-19 situation is not improving as the vaccine is not performing as expected. People still can get infected by Covid-19 but they will be able to recover faster and better.  Constant booster shots are required.

Current Status:

At the time of writing, the Covid-19 situation is not going away as the virus continue to mutate and people are getting infected. With the vaccination and booster, people are recovering faster and less severe. Countries around the world are still doing periodic lockdown due to the spike in infection. China, which has the zero Covid policy, the policy implementation is taking a toll on the country as well as the citizen. It is also impacting the rest of the world as traveling to and from China is still restricted. 

2022 Prediction:

The economic recovery remains as an issue as per last year with very slow recovery. This will probably go on for the next 2 years.  As mentioned last year, the medical industries and any unconventional industries will continue to flourish.

Current Status:

With countries moving towards endemic mode and herd immunity, most of these countries are opening up to allow better flow of people and trade. However, Russia invasion on Ukraine has cause oil price to sky-rocket and causes major inflation world-wide. On top of that, with the lockdown due to Covid-19, most of the industries already wind down to the minimum. With the opening, industries will need time to restart again. Since winding down, a lot of staff have been retrenched and these staff no longer available. It will take time to hire people and train them again. 

A quick check on the Qi Men Dun Jia chart for next few years, the economy recovery will only happen in 2nd half of 2025.

 2022 Prediction:

The job market will pick up this year with more people changing jobs after being stagnant for the last 2 years.  There will be more job movements in the education industries and sales.

Current Status:

The great resignation wave started around Dec 2021/Jan 2022 and as of July 2022, it shows no sign of slowing down. In fact, Fortune magazine reported that 40% of US workers are considering quitting their jobs. Fortune magazine reported that Leisure and Hospitality industry was the hardest hit, follow by Trade, Transportation and Utilities. 

Source: https://fortune.com/2022/07/21/great-resignation-40-percent-want-to-quit-where-are-they-going/

https://fortune.com/2021/11/16/great-resignation-hitting-these-industries-hardest/

2022 Prediction:

The entertainment industry (night club, KTV, pub etc) will continue to be sluggish and losing money.

Current Status:

Singapore government announced that all night life businesses including KTV and night club can reopen from 19th Apr 2022. However, for some establishments, a negative ART result done within 24 hours is required and this test has to be supervised. Such requirement might put off some from going. 

2022 Prediction:

Divorce rate will stabilise this year.

Current Status:

2022 statistics are not available yet. In 2020, I predicted that 2021 divorce rate will go up. As released by Singapore Department of Statistics, in 2021, there is an increase of 13.4% in divorce. 

Source: https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/press06072022.ashx

Thanks
Calvin
July 2022